U.S. Antimony Supply Resilience — Applied Strategy 001

Executive decision

Qualify the alternative source, then fund five months of buyer-approved stock

Under the modeled eight-month severe interruption in 2030, the balanced strategy covers the full disruption with an initial inventory investment of about $2.30 million. A nine-month inventory-led strategy also covers the scenario but ties up about $4.13 million in stock, above the case's illustrative $3 million cash ceiling.

The five-month policy depends on qualifying a separate 45% international sourcing lane and testing the actual grade, refining origin, end-use eligibility and delivery terms. If that channel cannot qualify, the model shows 16.5 metric tons unfilled in 2027 under the severe interruption.

Supply evidence

Import dependence and material qualification frame the risk

USGS estimated 91% U.S. net import reliance for antimony in 2025. China supplied 55% of U.S. antimony metal and oxide imports over 2021–2024, a historical import-origin measure. The national indicators establish market exposure; a manufacturer must separately verify product form, upstream refining, traceability, testing and acceptance for its own bill of materials.

Public financing may support future U.S. supply. EXIM lists $2.906 billion for Stibnite as authorized; financing close, processing arrangements, qualified deliveries and actual buyer supply remain separate milestones. Idaho National Laboratory's 2026 pilot commissioning demonstrates processing development rather than commercially qualified antimony output.

Strategy comparison

A balanced policy meets both modeled 2030 constraints

All values below are calculated for a hypothetical buyer consuming 100 metric tons of contained antimony per year. The event is an eight-month severe interruption with the assumed qualified supplier mix and 2030 domestic availability.

2030 modeled severe-disruption comparison across four sourcing strategies
Strategy	Stock buffer	Unfilled	Stock cash	Annual increment
Domestic-led	2 mo	22.1 t	$0.92m	$768k
Diversification-led	3 mo	16.7 t	$1.38m	$773k
Inventory-led	9 mo	0 t	$4.13m	$703k
Balanced / conditional	5 mo	0 t	$2.30m	$813k

Stock purchase cash is an inventory asset. Annual incremental expense combines illustrative sourcing premiums, inventory carry and disruption-specific emergency procurement markup. Figures are rounded from the linked workbook.

Three conditions govern execution

Supplier qualification. Procurement and Engineering verify grade, refinery, shipment origin, licensing, storage suitability and independent delivery capability before relying on the alternative sourcing target.
Inventory funding. Finance verifies buyer-specific price, storage, replenishment and cash ceilings. A sixth-month purchase option provides an escalation route when the modeled continuity tolerance is insufficient.
Domestic offtake. Strategy and Legal tie any future domestic share to documented financing, processing, accepted product and enforceable delivery terms.

Sources and modeling method

The evidence base combines SMPT's antimony records with USGS, government financing and licensing material, laboratory reporting and issuer filings. Source documents distinguish announced, authorized and disbursed financing from commercial production.

The demand, supplier shares, premiums, inventory limits and disruptions are scenario assumptions for a hypothetical manufacturer. The workbook is an episodic cost-exposure and continuity test; it is not an actual company procurement plan or an expected-value forecast.

Selected original sources

Research and source retrieval: 4 November 2026. Suggested citation: Yang, Benjamin. “U.S. Antimony Supply Resilience, 2027–2031.” Strategic Materials Policy Tracker, Applied Strategy 001 (November 2026).