{ "projectionVersion": "smpt-investigation-1", "projectId": "prj-au-nolans", "corpus": { "revision": "2026-11-03", "legalStatusCutoff": "2026-11-03", "view": "current_corpus_revision", "notice": "Curated corpus revision, not source freshness or historical known-as-of coverage. Financial histories retain their own status dates." }, "project": { "id": "prj-au-nolans", "name": "Nolans project", "sponsorOrgIds": [ "org-arafura-rare-earths" ], "locations": [ { "countryCode": "AU", "subnational": "Northern Territory", "asStated": "the Northern Territory" } ], "stages": [], "materialIds": [ "rare-earth-elements" ], "materialAttribution": "tracked_only", "untrackedMaterialsAsStated": [], "evidence": [ { "sourceId": "src-pm-us-au-framework-2025", "supports": [ "name", "location", "materials" ], "evidence": "explicit", "locator": "Paragraph on the second priority project", "note": "\"the Arafura Nolans project in the Northern Territory\"" }, { "sourceId": "src-arafura-nolans-efa-subscription-2026", "supports": [ "sponsors" ], "evidence": "explicit", "locator": "Overview and Export Finance Australia section, pp. 1–2; Annexure B, use of proceeds", "note": "Arafura Rare Earths Limited is the corporate developer raising funds specifically for the Nolans project. This sponsorship link does not assert separate legal ownership of project assets." } ], "notes": "The release names the project as \"the Arafura Nolans project\" and states no developer or stage, so neither is recorded. The April 2026 ASX announcement expressly identifies Arafura Rare Earths Limited as the corporate equity issuer financing Nolans development, so it is registered as the project's sponsor/developer; underlying project-asset title remains unasserted." }, "organizations": [ { "id": "org-arafura-rare-earths", "name": "Arafura Rare Earths Limited", "nameOriginal": null, "aliases": [ "Arafura", "Arafura Rare Earths" ], "kind": "company", "roles": [ { "role": "registered_sponsor", "recordId": "prj-au-nolans" }, { "role": "recipient", "recordId": "fin-au-arafura-nolans-2025-equity" } ], "evidence": [ { "sourceId": "src-arafura-nolans-efa-subscription-2026", "supports": [ "name", "kind", "country" ], "evidence": "explicit", "locator": "ASX announcement cover and Overview, page 1; Arafura Rare Earths Limited, registered in Australia; address in Perth, Western Australia", "note": "The company issues ordinary shares to EFA and KfW under separate binding subscription agreements; receiving equity is not equivalent to a project itself being a legal share issuer." } ] }, { "id": "org-au-government", "name": "Australian Government", "nameOriginal": null, "aliases": [ "Commonwealth of Australia" ], "kind": "government", "roles": [ { "role": "provider", "recordId": "fin-au-arafura-nolans-2025-equity" } ], "evidence": [ { "sourceId": "src-pm-us-au-framework-2025", "supports": [ "name", "kind", "country", "actor" ], "evidence": "explicit", "locator": "Paragraphs on the two priority projects", "note": null }, { "sourceId": "src-legislation-au-cmpti-2025", "supports": [ "name" ], "evidence": "explicit", "locator": "Title page", "note": "The Act is an Act of the Commonwealth of Australia; the tax offset is paid by the Commonwealth." } ] } ], "financialInstruments": [ { "id": "fin-au-arafura-nolans-2025-equity", "eventId": "evt-us-au-framework-2025", "instrument": "equity", "valueRole": "commitment", "capitalSource": "public", "projectRelationship": "directly_attributable", "projectId": "prj-au-nolans", "associatedProjectIds": [], "amount": { "value": "100000000", "currency": "USD", "qualifier": "exact", "amountAsStated": "a USD$100 million equity investment in the project", "currencyBasis": "stated", "basisNote": null, "basisLabel": null }, "amountBasis": "current_recorded_terms_not_historical_totals", "provider": "Australian Government", "providerJurisdiction": "australia", "providerOrgIds": [ "org-au-government" ], "recipient": "Arafura Rare Earths Limited", "recipientOrgIds": [ "org-arafura-rare-earths" ], "programmeId": null, "legalAuthority": null, "facility": null, "locations": [ { "countryCode": "AU", "subnational": "Northern Territory", "asStated": "the Northern Territory" } ], "materialIds": [ "rare-earth-elements" ], "stages": [], "currentFinancialStatus": "contracted", "financialStatusHistory": [ { "status": "announced", "date": "2025-10-20", "sourceId": "src-pm-us-au-framework-2025", "note": null }, { "status": "contracted", "date": "2026-04-01", "sourceId": "src-arafura-nolans-efa-subscription-2026", "note": "Arafura executed a binding US$100 million subscription agreement with Export Finance Australia; completion remained subject to conditions precedent." } ], "legacyPhysicalObservations": [], "terms": [], "statedOutcomes": [ { "metric": "supply_share", "value": "5", "qualifier": "exact", "unit": "% of global rare earths", "targetDate": null, "asStated": "Once operational, this project will produce 5 per cent of global rare earths", "statedBy": "government", "sourceId": "src-pm-us-au-framework-2025", "note": "The Australian Government's statement, not an estimate made here." } ], "relationships": [ { "commitmentId": "fin-us-au-framework-2025-au-financing", "relationship": "part_of", "sourceId": "src-pm-us-au-framework-2025", "locator": "Fourth and seventh paragraphs", "note": "Presented as one of the pipeline's priority projects with financial commitments announced the same day." } ], "evidence": [ { "sourceId": "src-pm-us-au-framework-2025", "supports": [ "instrument", "value_role", "capital_source", "amount", "provider", "recipient", "project", "location", "materials", "status", "outcomes" ], "evidence": "explicit", "locator": "Seventh and eighth paragraphs", "note": null }, { "sourceId": "src-pm-us-au-framework-2025", "supports": [ "relationships" ], "evidence": "ambiguous", "locator": "Fourth paragraph", "note": "That this equity counts towards Australia's USD 1 billion is implied, not stated." }, { "sourceId": "src-arafura-nolans-efa-subscription-2026", "supports": [ "instrument", "amount", "provider", "status", "project", "recipient" ], "evidence": "explicit", "locator": "Overview and Export Finance Australia section (pp. 1–2); Annexure B (p. 6)", "note": "Binding US$100M EFA subscription is for fully paid ordinary shares in Arafura Rare Earths Limited, not shares in a legally distinct Nolans project. Amount and status are unchanged; completion subject to conditions precedent." } ], "notes": "The US$100 million EFA equity support announced in October 2025 became a binding subscription agreement on 1 April 2026. Completion remained subject to conditions precedent, so no disbursement is inferred. A 2 October 2026 lifecycle review found primary company material still tying full construction commencement to financing/settlement milestones; no later primary source reviewed cleanly confirmed full construction commencement, so no physical construction status is recorded here. The April 2026 ASX disclosure identifies Arafura Rare Earths Limited as the legal share issuer/recipient of EFA's agreed investment; Nolans is the project to which proceeds are intended to be applied, not a share-issuing entity." } ], "nonallocativeAssociations": [], "designations": [], "nativeMilestones": [], "policyContexts": [ { "id": "evt-us-au-framework-2025", "relationship": "finance_or_designation_parent", "jurisdiction": "australia", "issuingBody": "Prime Minister of Australia and President of the United States (joint framework)", "titleEn": "United States–Australia Framework for Securing of Supply in the Mining and Processing of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths", "titleOriginal": "United States–Australia Framework for Securing of Supply in the Mining and Processing of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths", "documentNumber": null, "date": "2025-10-20", "policyStatus": "active", "sourceIds": [ "src-wh-us-au-framework-2025", "src-pm-us-au-framework-2025" ] } ], "coannouncedControls": [], "financePackageReferences": [ { "childFinanceId": "fin-au-arafura-nolans-2025-equity", "parentFinanceId": "fin-us-au-framework-2025-au-financing", "relation": "part_of", "projectMoneyAllocation": "not_asserted", "evidence": [ { "sourceId": "src-pm-us-au-framework-2025", "locator": "Fourth and seventh paragraphs" } ] } ], "unknowns": [ "No project-native source-reviewed industrial milestone is published. Attributed activity in financing histories remains a separate evidence class; no exact milestone date or facility-wide conclusion is inferred.", "Historical amount review is incomplete. Current amounts cannot be read as a time series of earlier commitments.", "Structural links and shared materials do not demonstrate that a government measure caused an industrial outcome." ], "sources": [ { "id": "src-arafura-nolans-efa-subscription-2026", "title": "Arafura Executes Binding Cornerstone Equity Agreements", "publisher": "Arafura Rare Earths Limited / Australian Securities Exchange", "url": "https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/ARU/03074414.pdf", "language": "en", "sourceType": "other", "confidence": "primary", "publishedOn": "2026-04-01", "accessedOn": "2026-10-02" }, { "id": "src-legislation-au-cmpti-2025", "title": "Future Made in Australia (Production Tax Credits and Other Measures) Act 2025 (No. 9, 2025)", "publisher": "Federal Register of Legislation, Commonwealth of Australia", "url": "https://www.legislation.gov.au/C2025A00009/asmade/text", "language": "en", "sourceType": "official", "confidence": "primary", "publishedOn": "2025-02-14", "accessedOn": "2026-08-12" }, { "id": "src-pm-us-au-framework-2025", "title": "Historic critical minerals framework signed by President Trump and Prime Minister Albanese", "publisher": "Prime Minister of Australia", "url": "https://www.pm.gov.au/media/historic-critical-minerals-framework-signed-president-trump-and-prime-minister-albanese", "language": "en", "sourceType": "official", "confidence": "primary", "publishedOn": "2025-10-21", "accessedOn": "2026-09-23" }, { "id": "src-wh-us-au-framework-2025", "title": "United States-Australia Framework For Securing of Supply in the Mining and Processing of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths", "publisher": "The White House", "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/10/united-states-australia-framework-for-securing-of-supply-in-the-mining-and-processing-of-critical-minerals-and-rare-earths/", "language": "en", "sourceType": "official", "confidence": "primary", "publishedOn": "2025-10-20", "accessedOn": "2026-09-23" } ], "limitations": [ "Policy contexts here parent existing finance or designation records; a shared material or date never creates a causal edge.", "Coannounced controls are announcement siblings only, not project-specific restrictions or effects.", "Direct project attribution and nonallocative association are different. No individual monetary allocation, financial sum or payment conclusion is authorized.", "Financing statuses describe the current corpus revision. Legacy implementation observations require scoped review and are not project-native milestones.", "A milestone's event/target date, publication/access horizon and reviewer date are separate. A planned target is not automatically occurred.", "An absent reviewed milestone means no approved entry in SMPT, not that the facility is inactive or failed.", "Amounts retain current source-stated terms, original currency and exact decimal strings. This packet computes no historical financial totals or project-wide monetary allocation.", "Published source review does not establish independent on-site verification. Source, financial-status, occurrence, target and review dates remain distinct." ] }